2020 Year-End Results

I think we can all agree this has been an interesting year, to say the least. In spite of being locked down for the entirety of Q2, I was still able to get a decent amount of sessions (for a part-time player) before and after the lockdown:

  • Units won: 497

  • Z score [(AV-EV)/Std. Dev.]: +0.13

  • Freeplay: 38 units

  • Amount won from dealer payout mistakes: 7 units

  • Amount won from other players gifting me chips: 8 units

  • Tips: 5 units

  • Flat bet countermeasures: 1

  • Backoffs: 0

  • Other APs encountered: 0

  • Pseudo-APs encountered: too many to count

  • Basic Strategy players: 0

  • Times another player doubled down on hard 16: 3

Basically what happened was after the COVID shutdown, I had a nice upswing followed by a terrible downswing, which was -400 units in 10 hours. At bottom I was two standard deviations below EV. It was a grind of getting back the 400 units (60 hours), but it should have taken more than twice that amount of time to generate that AV based on accumulated EV in that time.

As an aside, personally I like the effect that COVID has had on my local casinos. No smoking, three players per table max, and no changes to rules or pen have all been a plus. The only cons are limited games available with capacity restrictions, and that combined with higher table minimums mean you have to be disciplined and select good times and games to play (I typically took 1 to 2 bathroom breaks per hour, which always coincided with bad counts). Also, with higher table minimums comes increased EV, but also increased variance, as I quickly discovered.

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