Alabama vs LSU Picks and Odds

Mac Jones throwing

Alabama quarterback Mac Jones (10) releases a pass during the first half of the team’s NCAA college football game against Arkansas in Oxford, Miss., Saturday, Oct. 10, 2020. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)
  • Alabama is a 29.5-point favorite against defending national champion LSU in their re-scheduled game for Week 14
  • The Crimson Tide have won eight of the last nine games in this rivalry
  • Read below for a deeper look, odds and spread for this late-season SEC West tilt

The matchup between Alabama and LSU has been one the year’s biggest games on an annual basis for over a decade.

In 2020, however, that isn’t the case. Like the Iron Bowl, a combination of Tide dominance and Tiger regression has put the point spread over four touchdowns in favor of Nick Saban’s squad.

#1 Alabama vs LSU Week 14 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Alabama Crimson Tide -29.5 (-106) -4000 O 67.5 (-114)
LSU Tigers +29.5 (-114) +1260 U 67.5 (-105)

Odds taken Dec. 2

Tide Keep Rolling

That aforementioned Iron Bowl was one of the most lopsided games the series has seen in a while. Even in a 52-21 Alabama victory in 2018, the Tigers put up a fight in the first half, entering the break trailing by just three points. This year, the Tigers entered the break having scored only three points.

The Tide had 21 at the break, and they would make it 42 by the end of the game. Even without Nick Saban on the sidelines after a positive COVID diagnosis, everything went smoothly for Alabama.

Mac Jones had five touchdowns and no interceptions. The defense forced Bo Nix into no scores through the air and two picks. It was that kind of day in every facet of the game. Alabama did everything they wanted to do, and they stopped Auburn from doing the same.

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This has been the weekly story for Alabama for the better part of the year. In the third game of the year, Ole Miss put up 48 points and pushed the Tide into deep water. That served as the wake-up call for this team. Since that game, Alabama has been thoroughly dominant against the best of the best in the SEC.

2020 Heisman Trophy Odds Tracker

Tigers’ Championship Hangover Continues

In 2020, LSU has been the defending national champion in name only. After losing nearly every key playmaker on both sides of the ball to the NFL, and seemingly the rest of them opting out of this year or going on the shelf with injury, it has been a brutal season. The 20-7 defeat against Texas A&M wasn’t quite the blowout of the earlier loss to Auburn, but it is tough to find silver linings with a 3-4 record.

One of the biggest issues for LSU has come at quarterback. Myles Brennan went down early and is unlikely to return this year. TJ Finley wasn’t the answer, and Max Johnson has shown positive signs, but he hasn’t been able to elevate the unit to an elite level. This week should be Johnson’s third with significant action, so there could be some improvement as he gets comfortable with the role.

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What’s the Best Bet?

The impressive thing about Alabama is that they don’t just win, but they also cover the spread consistently. The Tide are 6-2 this year ATS, and they’ve covered in five straight games. By the old adage that “good teams win, but great teams cover”, Alabama is undeniably great.

LSU has been pedestrian against the spread, going just 1-1 at home this year and 1-1 as an underdog. Mississippi State, who has had an abysmal 2020, came into Baton Rouge and put up 44 points. Auburn, who Alabama just disposed of, beat LSU 48-11 just a few weeks ago.

The big spread of 29.5 points may scare some off, but the Tide regularly win by these big margins. They were 24.5-point favorites against Auburn and covered. Even if Max Johnson takes a step forward, the Alabama defense has turned itself into one of the country’s better units. The Tiger offense won’t be able to do much at all.

The Pick: Alabama -29.5 (-106)

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