Cal Poly vs Hawaii Picks and Odds

John Smith Cal Poly

Cal Poly coach John Smith looks on from the bench during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against San Diego State Saturday, Dec. 28, 2019, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Orlando Ramirez)
  • The Cal Poly Mustangs (2-4) fly to Honolulu, Hawaii to take on the Hawaii Warriors (2-0) at the Stan Sheriff Center at 10:00 PM ET on Sunday, Dec. 27th
  • Cal Poly has dropped two straight games while Hawaii has yet to lose this season
  • See the odds, spread, analysis, and best bet below

The Hawaii Warriors look to remain undefeated when they welcome the Cal Poly Mustangs to the Stan Sheriff Center on Sunday Night. The Warriors smashed Division II opponent Hawaii-Hilo 89-66 the last time they took the floor. Meanwhile, Cal Poly was soundly beaten 76-52 by Loyola Marymount the last time they laced up their sneakers.

The all-time series is tied 9-9 after Cal Poly took down the last matchup between the schools 71-68 last season. Hawaii is favored by 9.5-points in this matchup.

Cal Poly vs Hawaii Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Cal Poly Mustangs +9.5 (-104) +440 Over 139 (-110)
Hawaii Warriors -9.5 (-118) -590 Under 139 (-110)

Odds as of December 26th at FanDuel.

Cal Poly Needs a Win

The Mustangs have now dropped two games in a row with their last loss being a 76-52 whitewashing at the hands of Loyola Marymount. Cal Poly fell behind early and was never able to mount anything resembling a comeback. They were manhandled in the paint, which has been a problem all year long, being outscored 38-10 by the Lions.

One bright spot for Cal Poly was the play off the bench of freshman Camren Pierce. He provided instant offense with his second double digit scoring game of the season in limited minutes. No other Mustang was able to score more than 8 points in the contest.

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Hawaii Tries to Stay Undefeated

Scoring has yet to be a problem for Hawaii who have scored at least 83 points in both of their games this season. They have yet to play a Division I opponent but they have demolished both Division II schools they have played. The last being an 89-66 beating of nearby Hawaii-Hilo.

While Hawaii rolled Hawaii-Hilo, it was largely due to the Warriors winning the rebound battle 51-26. They are hardly expected to keep dominating the glass like that against Division I programs but it has worked so far. Fourteen different Warriors logged minutes against Hawaii-Hilo and four of them reached double digits with Justin Webster leading the way with 15. Forward Casden Jardine only needed 25 minutes to record his first double-double of the season scoring 13 points and pulling down 10 rebounds.

Best Betting Angle

One glaring problem for Cal Poly is the fact that they are very small and they can’t shoot. Out of the 357 teams in the country, they rank 326 in offensive efficiency according to KenPom. To compound the problem, they are 213th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. One way teams that lack efficiency can compete is by getting extra possessions but that just isn’t happening for the Mustangs.

Defensively, things don’t look any better for Cal Poly and it starts with size. They have one starter that is 6’10” in Hank Hollingsworth but he is not much of a presence down low. In the two games he has started this season, Cal Poly gave up 48 points in the paint to San Diego and 38 to Loyola Marymount. Giving up easy baskets when you can’t score is a recipe for disaster in college hoops.

Hawaii isn’t exactly a team that should be feared on the interior, but they are one that can score in the paint. In both games so far this season, they have topped 40 points in the paint. It will be important for the Warriors to score easy baskets because they don’t have the most efficient offense as they rank 252nd in the nation in offensive efficiency. Even though this is the first Division I program Hawaii has seen this season, they should come away with a win and cover.

Pick: Hawaii -9.5 (-110)

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