Drake vs Indiana State Picks and Odds

Nick McGlynn, Drake Bulldogs

Drake forward Nick McGlynn (35) fights for a rebound with Indiana State guard Christian Williams (10) during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game, Wednesday, Feb. 27, 2019, in Des Moines, Iowa. Drake has surpassed 20 wins for just the second time in 48 years behind a steady new coach in Darian DeVries, a senior who has blossomed into a player of the year candidate in McGlynn and former Iowa reserve Brady Ellingson, who is hitting three-point shots at a near-record pace.(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
  • Drake (9-0) heads to Indiana State (3-2) on Sunday, Dec. 27, at 1:00 pm ET
  • The Bulldogs are one of just three nine-win teams in NCAA Division I, and they’re unbeaten against the spread
  • The odds for the game, as well as matchup analysis and a pick, can be found in the article below

Of the 357 teams in NCAA Division I, there are three that have reached the nine-win mark already. Only two of them have done so without taking a loss, and one of those is Drake. The Bulldogs will look to get win No. 10 on Sunday, Dec. 27 at 1:00 pm ET on the road against Indiana State.

Drake is not just unbeaten on its straight up record, but also against the spread. The Sycamores will try to halt that streak as 3.5-point underdogs.

Drake vs Indiana State Odds

Team Moneyline Point Spread Total
Drake -174 -3.5 (-115) Over 142.5 (-110)
Indiana State +146 +3.5 (-105) Under 142.5 (-110)

Odds as of Dec. 26th, 2020.

How They’ve Fared So Far

Drake and Indiana State have 12 combined wins, but none have come against top-100 opponents, according to KenPom’s rankings. In fact, they both have just a single top-150 win apiece.

For Drake, that win came against Kansas State in their opener on Nov. 25. The Bulldogs were 4-point underdogs, clearing that spread easily in an 80-70 victory. Since then, they’ve beaten a pair of non-D-I teams and six others ranked outside of KenPom’s top-200.

Indiana State has faced easily the tougher opponents, dropping back-to-back games to Purdue (34th in KenPom) and Saint Louis (29th). The Sycamores weren’t particularly close in those matchups, losing by a combined 31 points — but they did cover against Purdue as 15.5-point underdogs.

The Sycamores’ top win came against Ball State, 67-57, covering as 3.5-point favorites. It was a sloppy game, featuring 39 total turnovers and just 9-of-38 made threes (23.7 percent). But they came out on the right side of the score and the spread.

2021 NCAA Men’s Tournament Championship Odds Tracker

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ATS Analysis

Speaking of coming out on the right side of the spread, that’s been Drake’s situation all season long. The Bulldogs are 7-0 against the spread (their two games against non-D-I teams didn’t have odds).

Not only are they winning and covering, they are obliterating the point spread. Six of their seven ATS wins — including five in a row — have come by an ATS margin of 12 points or more. Is it possible for oddsmakers to keep getting it wrong by that much, or might they overcorrect?

On the other side, Indiana State is 2-2 ATS. All of their ATS margins were under seven points, and they’re coming off a six-point ATS loss as 12-point favorites last time out (versus Southeast Missouri State).

Head-to-Head Matchup

In the past three years, Drake and Indiana State have met six times. Drake has covered the spread in all six. The Bulldogs won five of those games straight up, despite being favorites just three times.

Last year, both games were really tight on the scoreboard and the spread. Drake lost, 58-56, but covered as a four-point underdog. Drake also won, 80-76, covering as a 3.5-point favorite.

Looking at this year, there’s one thing that really stands out about Drake: its ability to shoot from 3-pt. range. The Bulldogs are fifth in D-I in 3-pt. percentage (42.8 percent), which means they’re a threat to score in bunches at any moment.

And although they’ve racked up their wins against fairly weak opponents, you can’t “luck” your way into excellent 3-pt. shooting. So find comfort in Drake’s absurdly strong start, its recent dominance over Indiana State and its ability to score from deep.

Pick: Drake -3.5 (-115)

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