Maryland vs Purdue Picks and Odds

Maryland forward Bruno Fernando battling Purdue's Matt Haarms for a rebound

The faces have changed, but Maryland vs Purdue promises to be a tightly-contested Big Ten battle on Christmas Day. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
  • Purdue (6-3) hosts Maryland (5-2) on Friday, Dec. 25, at 2:30 pm ET
  • The Terrapins have dropped three in a row against the spread, but they’ve covered in four-straight meetings with the Boilermakers
  • The odds for the game, as well as matchup analysis and a pick, can be found in the article below

The Big Ten was clearly feeling generous this holiday season, gifting sports fans and bettors alike with four games on Christmas Day. One of those sees Maryland (5-2) visit Purdue (6-3) for a 2:30 pm ET tip-off.

The Boilermakers are coming of their biggest defeat of the season, but they’ll enter Friday’s game as 5.5-point favorites over the Terrapins, who’ve had more success in this matchup in recent years.

Purdue vs Maryland Odds

Team Moneyline Point Spread Total
Purdue -235 -5.5 (-105) Over 137.5 (-114)
Maryland +194 +5.5 (-115) Under 137.5 (-106)

Odds as of Dec. 24th, 2020.

How They’ve Fared So Far

Maryland has fared quite well this season, save for a pair of losses against teams inside KenPom’s top 20: Clemson and No. 11 Rutgers. The Terrapins lost those games in the same week by a combined 30 points.

The problem is, all of their other opponents pale in comparison to Clemson and Rutgers. None of Maryland’s five wins came against teams inside the KenPom top 100 — and only Old Dominion (who ranks 119th) is inside the top 150. Another thing: all seven of Maryland’s games have been decided by 13 points or more, win or lose.

So, two items to potentially learn here: first, Maryland has yet to beat a truly formidable opponent (no offense, Old Dominion); second, they have a propensity to win by a lot or lose by a lot.

Purdue is looking for a pick-me-up on Friday, after taking a 70-55 beatdown against No. 4 Iowa on Tuesday. The Boilermakers’ other losses came against strong opponents, including Clemson and KenPom’s 67th-ranked Miami (FL).

Unlike Maryland, Purdue has demonstrated an ability to beat top-100 teams. In the past two weeks, the Boilermakers have beaten Notre Dame (87th) and No. 23 Ohio State (17th).

2021 NCAA Men’s Tournament Championship Odds Tracker

ATS Analysis

Both teams have losing records against the spread, which is never a preferred situation. The Terrapins are 3-4 against the spread, which includes three consecutive ATS losses and four in their past five. In their lone game as an underdog this year, Maryland failed to cover a 2-point spread in a 67-51 loss against Clemson.

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The Boilermakers are 3-5-1, failing to cover in four of their past six. As a favorite, they have a win, a loss and a push in their past three games.

Purdue has also seen the over hit in five of nine games, while Maryland has seen the over hit in four of seven.

Head-to-Head Matchup

In the past three seasons, Purdue and Maryland have matched up five times, and the Terrapins have had the upper hand, winning the past four meetings against the spread. That includes last year’s 57-50 straight up win as a 6.5-point favorite, as well as three previous against the spread wins as the underdog.

Maryland knows how to succeed in that underdog role. And, for whatever it’s worth, neither team has returned its leading scorer from last year’s game — so the slate is clean on that front.

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But there are a couple of factors working against each other here: would you rather rely on Maryland’s recent head-to-head success, or give credence to Purdue’s more impressive showing so far in 2020.

We’ll lean on what the Boilermakers are up to, showing they can hang with more formidable opponents. But keep the under in mind for this one, because it has hit in the past four meetings between these two.

Pick: Purdue -5.5 (-105); Under 137.5 (-106)

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