NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award Odds: It’s Herbert’s To Lose

We have reached the final two weeks of the 2020 NFL season, and the best NFL betting sites have released updated odds for the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. Quarterback Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers is still the top choice on the oddsboard in the latest edition.

Bovada has listed Herbert as the -1000 favorite in NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award odds, followed by wideout Justin Jefferson at +700, Tua Tagovailoa at +950 and Chase Claypool at +5000 to round out the choices.

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Sadly, Joe Burrow, the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft and the last Heisman Trophy winner, suffered a gruesome ACL and MCL injury last month in a game against Washington. Burrow was on pace to compete with Herbert for the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. Unfortunately, his injury ended that race.

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Who are the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Betting Favorites?

Let’s take a look at the betting odds to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, with analysis below on why Herbert is the favorite:

2020 NFL Offensive Rookie of the year award odds
Player Odds
Justin Herbert -1000
Justin Jefferson +700
Tua Tagovailoa +950
Chase Claypool +5000

Odds as of December 23 at Bovada

Herbert Way Out Front

Justin Herbert was the third quarterback selected in this year’s NFL draft, after Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa, and is the betting favorite to win the OROY Award at -1000.

Herbert has his first two-game winning streak in the NFL following an incredible performance last Thursday against the Las Vegas Raiders. Herbert looked sensational in leading the Chargers to a 30-27 overtime win in which he threw for two touchdowns and ran for the game-winning score. He threw for 314 yards, even though top receiver Keenan Allen was hobbled by an injury.

The 22-year-old Herbert has bounced back extremely well following his worst performance as a pro against the New England Patriots a few weeks ago, with five total touchdowns to just one interception in his last two games.

One thing that has been helping the young quarterback is the return of running back Austin Ekeler. Ekeler provides Herbert with a ground game, but more importantly, he is an incredible weapon in the passing game. In the four games since he’s returned, Herbert has targeted him more than anyone and he has a team-high 28 receptions over that span.

Over the last few weeks, Herbert has shown incredible consistency in his ability to stretch the field and make big plays. He finishes the season with a home game against the Denver Broncos before a road trip to take on the Kansas City Chiefs.

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Herbert’s Numbers Have Been Great

Herbert has now thrown 27 touchdown passes, which ranks tied for ninth in the NFL. He is completing 66.4 percent of his throws and his 3,781 passing yards are eighth in the league. What stands out when you watch Herbert on tape is his confidence and poise under center.

Since stepping into the starter’s role for Week 2, Herbert is averaging nearly 290 yards in the air per game. He has shown he has all the tools to be a successful quarterback in the NFL. He continues to improve and his consistent progression through the season is why he remains the front-runner to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award despite two bad outings.

Jefferson Is A Worthy Choice

It’s crazy to think that four other receivers were chosen in the 2020 draft ahead of Justin Jefferson, who fell to the Minnesota Vikings at the 22nd pick. The LSU product is having one of the best seasons by a rookie receiver in history.

His 1,182 receiving yards are the seventh-most in the NFL, and he has a legitimate chance to pass Anquan Boldin’s record for most receiving yards by a rookie at 1,377. His seven touchdowns are tied for 14th but he has not got into the end zone in his last two games.

Jefferson has been the perfect guy to step in for Stefon Diggs, who was traded to Buffalo in the offseason. He gives Kirk Cousins and the Vikings a legitimate deep threat and has shown that he can play on the outside or in the slot. Jefferson followed up his worst performance as a pro with eight receptions and 104 yards against the Chicago Bears.

Jefferson Trying To Overtake Herbert

Jefferson is worthy of having the second-best odds to win the OROY at +700, but it will be extremely tough for him to overtake Herbert over the final two games. His 103 targets ranks 18th among receivers and his 73 receptions are 22nd in the league. Jefferson put up some big numbers last weekend, but he will need to continue to do so in the last two games if he is going to have any chance of winning the award.

The Vikings are fighting for their playoff lives and will need him to continue to contribute in a big way. He is looking to become the first wideout to win the award since Odell Beckham Jr. in 2014.

It Will Be Hard For Tua To Make Up Ground

Tua Tagovailoa improved to 5-2 as a starter with last weekend’s win over the New England Patriots but he still trails Herbert considerably in the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds. He didn’t have his best game statistically but fared admirably without his top two targets in DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki.

The 22-year-old from Hawaii did throw an interception for a second consecutive game, and his 145 yards passing is nothing to gloat about, but the important thing is that he is finding ways to win games. One thing that’s working against him in the OROY race is that he hasn’t played in nearly as many games as Herbert and Jefferson. Tua’s odds have been on a bit of a roller-coaster, soaring up to as high as +325 but since going down to +950.

The Dolphins are currently in a wild-card spot at 9-5, and Tagovailoa has shown some progression over his last few starts. The last two games will be challenging for the young signal-caller, who has to face the desperate Las Vegas Raiders before closing the season against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.

At this point, it will be extremely tough for Tua to leapfrog both Herbert and Jefferson, but there is still an opportunity for him to improve his odds. As of now, I would say Tua is a big long shot to win, but he is trying to do something special – become the first player to not start Week 1 and go on to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award.

Check out our NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds to find out which rookie is favored to make the biggest impact on the other side of the field.

Reading NFL Rookie of the Year Odds

At any football betting sites, you’ll see offensive rookie prop odds laid out like this:

Justin Jefferson +700

Tua Tagovailoa +950

Unlike a traditional bet where there is a clear favorite and underdog, the player with the lowest odds is the fave. The rest are considered dogs. If you think Jefferson is the way to go, and you bet $100, you’d get a payout of $800 – you get your original money back along with your winnings of $700. Conversely, if you believe Tagovailoa is going to step up for the Dolphins, that same $100 would give you $1,050 – your $100 is returned coupled with the $950 you’d win.

Our Odds Calculator is a tool that will show you what you’d win based on the amount you bet and the odds offered.

If you’re going to bet on underdogs, make sure to do your research – or at least bookmark this page and let our NFL experts do the work for you. There’s a reason that a player’s odds are a certain way. They’ve succumbed to injury, their production is slowing down, they’ve been traded and are having a hard time jelling with their new team – these are some of the many factors that will hinder a player in winning Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY).

What is a Prop Bet on NFL Offensive Rookies?

To wager on something like the OROY, you would be making a prop bet. This is a bet based on the occurrence or non-occurrence of specific milestones that may not correlate directly to the outcome of a certain matchup. For instance, a contender for this award could play on a mediocre squad yet still be in the running due to his on-field prowess. It wouldn’t matter if his team wins football games or not, as long as he’s racking up yards and catches.

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