We are entering the final stretch of the 2020 NFL season, and the best NFL betting sites have released updated odds for the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. Quarterback Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers is still the top choice on the oddsboard in the latest edition.
BetOnline has listed Herbert as the -1000 favorite in NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award odds, followed by wideout Justin Jefferson at +500 and Tua Tagovailoa at +3300 to round out the choices.
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Sadly, Joe Burrow, the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft and the last Heisman Trophy winner, suffered a gruesome ACL and MCL injury last month in a game against Washington. Burrow was on pace to compete with Herbert for the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. Unfortunately, his injury ended that race.
Who are the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Betting Favorites?
Odds as of December 16 at BetOnline
Herbert Leading The Way
Justin Herbert was the third quarterback selected in this year’s NFL draft, after Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa, and is the betting favorite to win the OROY Award at -1000.
Herbert bounced back against the Atlanta Falcons last week following his worst performance of the season. He threw for 243 yards with two touchdowns and one interception in picking up his third career win.
Prior to the victory over the Falcons, Herbert had his worst outing as a pro in a 45-0 blowout to the New England Patriots. It marked the first time this year that the 22-year-old looked out of sorts.
One thing that has helped Herbert is the return of running back Austin Ekeler. Ekeler provides Herbert with a ground game, but more importantly, he is an incredible weapon in the passing game. In the three games since he’s returned, Herbert has targeted Ekeler more than anyone and he has a team-high 24 receptions in that span.
Over the last few weeks, we haven’t seen Herbert’s ability to move outside the pocket and make plays with his legs. Despite that, he continues to show incredible consistency in his ability to stretch the field.
Herbert’s Numbers Are Good
Herbert has now thrown 25 touchdown passes, which ranks tied for ninth in the NFL. He is completing 66.3 percent of his throws and his 3,467 passing yards are 11th in the league. What stands out when you watch Herbert on tape is his confidence and poise under center.
Since stepping into the starter’s role for Week 2 against the Kansas City Chiefs, Herbert is averaging nearly 290 yards in the air per game. He has shown he has all the tools to be a successful quarterback in the NFL and the more reps he gets, the better he will become. That’s why he remains the front-runner to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award despite two bad outings.
Jefferson Is Filling Big Shoes
It’s crazy to think that four other receivers were chosen in the 2020 draft ahead of Justin Jefferson, who fell to the Minnesota Vikings at the 22nd pick. The former LSU product is having one of the best seasons by a rookie receiver in history.
His 1,078 receiving yards are the seventh-most in the NFL, and he has a legitimate chance to pass Anquan Boldin’s record for most receiving yards by a rookie at 1,377. His seven touchdowns are tied for 14th and he has scored four touchdowns in his last four games.
Jefferson was the perfect guy to step in for Stefon Diggs, who was traded to Buffalo in the offseason. He gives Kirk Cousins and the Vikings a legitimate deep threat and has shown that he can play on the outside or in the slot. Jefferson followed five straight games with over 60 yards receiving with a dud against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week when he finished with just 39.
Jefferson Needs To Finish Strong
His 92 targets and 65 receptions both rank 22nd in the league. Jefferson is worthy of having the second-best odds to win the OROY at +500, but it will be extremely tough to overtake Herbert over the last three games. Jefferson will need to put up some big numbers against some tough defenses over the next few weeks if he is going to have any chance of winning the award.
The Vikings are currently in the playoff hunt and will need him to contribute in a big way in the final three weeks. He is looking to become the first wideout to win the award since Odell Beckham Jr. in 2014.
Tua Still Far Behind
Tua Tagovailoa had his best game statically last weekend in a loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, though he was also picked off for the first time this year. He finished with a career-high 316 yards and three total touchdowns. He struggled in the first half but managed to get things going in the second half.
The 22-year-old from Hawaii now has a record of 4-2 as a starter. He has shown that he has really good stuff to be a starting quarterback in the NFL for years to come. However, the one thing that’s working against him in the OROY race is that he hasn’t played in nearly as many games as Herbert and Jefferson. Tua’s odds have been on a bit of a roller-coaster, soaring up to +325 after his game against the Chargers three weeks ago but since plummeting to +3300.
The Dolphins are currently in a wild-card spot at 8-5, and Tagovailoa has shown progression over his last few starts. The last three games will be challenging for the young signal-caller, who has to face Bill Belichick and his 21-5 record against rookie quarterbacks this weekend.
The Fins play their final two games on the road against the Las Vegas Raiders and Buffalo Bills. It will be extremely tough to leapfrog both Herbert and Jefferson, but with three games left, there is still an opportunity for him to improve his odds. As of now, I would say Tua is a big long shot to win, but he is trying to do something special – become the first player to not start Week 1 and go on to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award.
Check out our NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds to find out which rookie is favored to make the biggest impact on the other side of the field.
Reading NFL Rookie of the Year Odds
At any football betting sites, you’ll see offensive rookie prop odds laid out like this:
Justin Jefferson +500
Tua Tagovailoa +3300
Unlike a traditional bet where there is a clear favorite and underdog, the player with the lowest odds is the fave. The rest are considered dogs. If you think Jefferson is the way to go, and you bet $100, you’d get a payout of $600 – you get your original money back along with your winnings of $500. Conversely, if you believe Tagovailoa is going to step up for the Dolphins, that same $100 would give you $3,400 – your $100 is returned coupled with the $3,300 you’d win.
If you’re going to bet on underdogs, make sure to do your research – or at least bookmark this page and let our NFL experts do the work for you. There’s a reason that a player’s odds are a certain way. They’ve succumbed to injury, their production is slowing down, they’ve been traded and are having a hard time jelling with their new team – these are some of the many factors that will hinder a player in winning Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY).
What is a Prop Bet on NFL Offensive Rookies?
To wager on something like the OROY, you would be making a prop bet. This is a bet based on the occurrence or non-occurrence of specific milestones that may not correlate directly to the outcome of a certain matchup. For instance, a contender for this award could play on a mediocre squad yet still be in the running due to his on-field prowess. It wouldn’t matter if his team wins football games or not, as long as he’s racking up yards and catches.