Flexed into the prime-time slot, the Arizona Cardinals will host the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday Night Football. The NFC West showdown, with a narrow 3.5-point spread and the second-highest Week 7 total, is expected to be filled with thrills for sports betting betting and daily fantasy purposes alike.
Seahawks vs. Cardinals Betting Odds
As of Sunday afternoon, the Seahawks are 3.5-point favorites with backing from 73% of the betting handle, according to ScoresAndOdds. The Over/Under has moved from 54 to 56, making it the highest projected game next to the Packers vs. Texans (57). The public has flocked toward Overs in recent weeks. Doing so has been a profitable endeavor with teams scoring at a historical through the first quarter of the season. But as I touched in our Week 7 betting preview the market, albeit slow at first, is adjusting…maybe too much.
In Week 6, the Over/Under was 4-8. The early games today were 2-4-1.
Moreover, it’s worth noting that the Cardinals have not played a game this season where the Over hit.
Now let’s set the trends aside for a second.
The Cardinals play at a fairly high pace in head coach Kliff Kingsbury’s spread system, but they take time off the clock by running short passes.
As for the Seahawks, they have the top offense in the league, ranking 1st in yards per play and 2nd in points per drive. Averaging 33.8 points per game on their way to a perfect 5-0 record, it’s no wonder leads the MVP race.
Where Seattle has been absurdly successful is in the red zone. They are scoring touchdowns 89% of the time that they enter the red zone. Last year Tennessee led the league in red zone scoring at 77%. Next in line were the Green Bay Packers at 68%. Historically, the top red zone offenses have scored closer to a 70% rate.
In short, there’s no reason to think the Seahawks’ success in the red zone is sustainable.
While the Seahawks defense — 26th-ranked DVOA — has its deficiencies, the Cardinals haven’t been particularly explosive on offense. Per GridIronIQ, only 40.5% of their offensive plays have resulted in positive EPA (expected points added). Murray in his totality has been impressive, but the Cardinals passing game is right in the middle of the pack when it comes to Pass Success Rate.
Sunday Night Football Betting Picks
If you haven’t quite picked up what I’m putting down, I really like Under 55 on Sunday Night Football. The Seahawks’ red zone scoring will regress eventually (hopefully tonight), and the Cardinals’ offense isn’t consistently putting up points. Sure, the Cardinals have a good matchup against a vulnerable Seahawks defense, but I think the market is currently a bit too high when it comes to totals, and this game is no exception. This is a spot where I want to bet on the Under.
Seahawks vs. Cardinals Picks: Under 55
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