UFC Vegas #17 Betting Prediction: Dalcha Lungiambula vs Karl Roberson

Looking at the preliminary card for the upcoming UFC event, you will find more than a handful of excellent fighting matchups. One betting opportunity to take notice of is the middleweight showdown between Karl Roberson and Dalcha Lungiambula.

Date: Sat, Dec 19, 3:00 PM

Venue: UFC Apex

Watch on: ESPN+

Betting Preview: Karl Roberson (9-3-0)

Roberson is coming off of a tough first-round submission loss to Marvin Vettori back in July. This loss snapped his previous two-fight winning streak.

His fighting resume shows that he has two wins by knockout, four by submission, and three by decision. He also has five first-round finishes with a combination of knockouts and submissions.

“Baby K” has a striking accuracy at 51% and a grappling accuracy at 57%. He lands 3.00 significant strikes a minute while absorbing 2.42. This ratio is solid, with a decent volume for both sides.

Roberson has a takedown defense at 50% and a significant strike defense at 57%. He also averages 0.99 takedowns and 0.80 submissions every 15 minutes.

Betting Preview: Dalcha Lungiambula (10-2-0)

Lungiambula is coming into this matchup after a knockout loss to Magomed Ankalaev back in November of 2019. That bout snapped his previous six-fight winning streak.

His fighting resume shows that he has five wins by knockout, one by submission, and one by decision. He has three first-round finishes, with two of them being knockouts and one of them by submission.

“Champion” has a striking accuracy at 55% and a grappling accuracy at 50%. He lands 1.79 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 2.69. This ratio is on the negative side, so he would need to turn this around in the future.

Lungiambula has a takedown defense at 66% and a significant strike defense at 41%. He also averages 2.83 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time.

Roberson vs. Lungiambula Betting Odds & Lines

The market is showing that Roberson is becoming a moderate favorite. For the moneyline, Intertops has the odds currently set at:

  • Roberson: -270
  • Lungiambula: +205

*odds are subject to changes

Free Betting Pick

Both of these fighters have the ability to knock each other out or make the fight go the distance. It is difficult to tell a lot by Lungiambula based on his stats because he only has two UFC bouts on his resume.

However, they both have had success in dominating a fight that they were supposed to win. In this matchup, Roberson is expected to win.

Furthermore, Lungiambula has not had the same quality of fighters as compared to Roberson. For example, Roberson was paired with Vettori in his last bout even though he lost.

Overall, this one has a few different ways it could turn out. Roberson appears to be the better option here for the pick with either a decision or submission, but this could go the distance anyway.

Spooky Express Free Pick: Roberson wins via decision, at -270

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