Wolves v Tottenham
Sky Sports Main Event
Wolves missing Jimenez
It’s an easy thing to say that Wolves will be hurt by the absence of Raul Jimenez. But the hard, fast stats show they do: Wolves average just 0.7 goals per Premier League game without Jimenez in the starting line-up, compared to 1.3 goals-per-game when the Mexican does start.
Wolves still had enough about them to fight back and beat Chelsea 2-1. But defeats to Aston Villa (0-1) and Burnley (1-2) either side weren’t good and their position of 11th in the table doesn’t seem false in any way from what we’ve seen so far.
One other concern has to be that the clean sheets have dried up. They haven’t shut the opposition out in any of the last seven games.
That adds pressure to the frontline and it’s not a great mix at the moment.
Cup win could boost Spurs after back-to-back defeats
With time almost up at Anfield, Spurs were set to come away with a draw and retain their position at the top of the table.
But Roberto Firmino’s powerful header condemned them to a 2-1 defeat, leaving Jose Mourinho being ridiculed in some places for saying the best team lost.
He tried to put a positive spin on their next match too but, once more, it seemed they simply got outplayed as Leicester walked off with a 2-0 victory in North London.
So, in a congested division, Spurs suddenly find themselves in sixth place and six points behind leaders Liverpool.
Mourinho will want to reverse that slide immediately and, in terms of the league, Molineux could be a decent place to do that.
However, Spurs have already taken a first step in regaining some confidence by getting back to winning ways in the EFL Cup when winning 3-1 at Stoke.
That’s Tottenham in another Cup semi and Mourinho is sniffing more silverware.
It’s 11th v 6th in the table but Wolves have home advantage. However, the market is clearly tilted towards Spurs.
Tottenham are 2.265/4 to bank all three points while Wolves are 3.814/5 for the win. The Draw is priced in between at 3.3512/5.
Spurs have four away wins and two draws from their seven road trips. And that record could have been even better but for late slips against Liverpool and also Crystal Palace, where they led 1-0 with nine minutes to play.
However, they remain a team suited to away games and Molinuex has been a happy hunting ground for them in the past.
Spurs have won on their last three trips there, scoring plenty of goals in the process. Reading back from last season those victories were 2-1, 3-2 and 2-0. The 2-0 was in 2011 so not as relevant.
If fancying Spurs – and I do – it’s pretty easy to turn this into a Same Game Multi bet.
Why? While some teams have scorers from multiple sources, Spurs have narrowed it down more than any other team.
They’ve scored 25 Premier League goals this season and 20 have been scored by either Son Heung-min (11) or Harry Kane (9). Therefore, if Spurs are to rack up another win, it’s pretty likely who’ll find the net.
Looking at past games between the pair, Son hasn’t registered but Kane scored home and away a couple of seasons ago. Kane also added Spurs’ final goal in the EFL Cup win over Stoke on Wednesday night and I’ll take him to add another here.
So back, Kane To Score and Spurs to Win in Same Game Multi at 3.39.
The other bet I like due to it being underestimated a little is Over 2.5 Goals at 2.35/4. There doesn’t seem to be a good reason why it’s such an underdog – Unders is 1.695/7.
First, the goal tallies in the four games between the pair since Wolves were promoted read: 5, 4, 3, 5. Second, it’s landed in 50% of Tottenham’s six away games in the Premier League. Add in Cups and it becomes 62%.
It’s not as clear from a Wolves perspective but if taking into account just their home matches against the traditional ‘Big 6’, they lost 3-1 to Man City and beat Chelsea 2-1.
Add in the lack of recent clean sheets and Overs definitely appeals.
The Both Teams to Score price of 2.01/1 also looks good.
Tottenham’s Harry Kane has scored nine Premier League goals this season; his next strike will see him become just the fourth Englishman to reach double figures in seven consecutive Premier League campaigns, after Michael Owen (97-98 to 03-04), Frank Lampard (10 between 03-04 and 12-13) and Wayne Rooney (11 between 04-05 and 14-15).